© Messe München
EXPO REAL opens with lenders keen but choosy, prices still under negotiation and projects waiting on terms, power and policy. This is the field guide to which of those can move in Munich.
Munich may help buyers, sellers and lenders test a number. That does not mean the market has finished repairing its balance sheet.
Debt funds are expanding the market, but their own capital has a maturity calendar. A crowded lender market does not automatically mean easier terms.
At EXPO REAL, the investable question is increasingly about power, networks and the land that makes them possible. The constraint may be a grid connection, not a planning consent.
Photo: Dietmar Rabich, CC BY-SA 4.0
GERMANYInvestment, vacancy and rent are telling different stories in Munich, Hamburg, Berlin and Frankfurt. The host market is not one trade.
Photo: Cybularny, CC0 1.0
POLANDWarsaw, Silesia, Łódź and Wrocław each run their own stand in Hall A2. What that says about who sells Poland to international capital, and about who is buying.
Photo: Jakub Súkeník, CC BY-SA 4.0
CZECHIA & SLOVAKIACzechia brings one national exposition to Munich and a market driven by its own capital. Is Prague's tight yield a sign of depth, or a door outside buyers struggle to open?
Photo: Andrei-Daniel Nicolae, CC BY 2.0
ROMANIARomania comes to Munich on a chamber-led stand with the widest prime office yield in one broker's CEE list. Is that a reward, or the price of thin liquidity?
© Messe München
PlannerSix curated routes; pick sessions and take the day away as one calendar file.
Six curated routes, at most five sessions a day each. Pick yours; take the day away as one calendar file.
Counter: Credit standards are still tightening, so for weaker assets the capital itself is missing, not only its price.
Counter: Non-bank lenders are now a durable part of the market and work alongside banks, so the clock is managed rather than a cliff.
Counter: Trades are closing anyway: German volume ran 15% ahead of last year in the first half, with 21 deals above €100m, so the conversation is already turning into trades.
Counter: European capacity is still set to grow 20% this year, which suggests grid access is a cost to price, not a wall.
Counter: National volume is up 15%, so the recovery is broader than a handful of postcodes.
RealTimes PeerView
A PeerView is a prepared, time-bounded exchange between two senior peers, curated and briefed by RealTimes ahead of EXPO REAL 2026. It is not a meeting slot, a pitch or a one-sided conversation. Sponsors and executives take part on different terms, and every match follows the same brief.
Series 1 is sponsored by Shelton Reed
Through the cycles
Six years after its 2019 record (five editions; 2020 was cancelled), EXPO REAL has 90% of its crowd and 80% of its exhibitors. After 2008, the stands never fell that far.
RealTimes desk
Exhibitors and participants at each EXPO REAL as a share of the record edition, comparing the recovery after 2019 (2,189 exhibitors) with the recovery after 2008 (1,856 exhibitors). In 2025 the fair had 1,742 exhibitors, 80% of its record, against 89% at the same point after 2008. Participants reached 42,000, 90% of the record, against 88% last time. Last time exhibitors beat the 2008 record in 2017, 9 editions on, with 2,003. 2020 was cancelled and is shown as a gap. The ECB main rate on opening day ran from 4.25% down to 0.00% after 2008, and from 0.00% up to 4.50% after 2019; it is 2.65% as the 2026 fair opens.
Date each change took effect. ECB key interest rates
How to read this chart. Participants were counted as trade visitors only from 1998 to 2006 and as all participants, trade visitors plus exhibitor staff, from 2007, so the 2006 to 2007 jump is partly a change of definition, not growth. 2020 was cancelled: the gap is a missing edition, not zero. 2002 figures are pre-show registrations. Countries means participant or visitor countries; exhibitor countries are shown only where the source publishes them. Each mood line is taken from that edition's final report or a contemporary press account, in English. The 2026 edition runs 5 to 7 Oct and has no figures yet.
18 open calls. Fund manager (3) · Senior lender (4) · Valuer (1) · Broker (3) · Debt fund manager (1) · Developer (2) · Operator (1) · City & public sector (2) · Investor (1)
Fund manager · Europe
For a stabilised office or logistics asset in a city you are active in, what entry-yield range would you bid this week, and how has that range moved since EXPO REAL 2025? Ranges are fine.
Answer this →Senior lender · Europe
On a €50m, five-year senior loan against a stabilised, EPC-A Munich office, what LTV and margin would you quote this week, and what changes at EPC-D with no capex plan? Ranges are fine.
Answer this →Valuer · Europe
For a Grade A office asset you are currently valuing, what is the live gap between your bid-side and ask-side, in basis points or as a percentage, and has it narrowed since the ECB's 10 Sep rate decision? Ranges are fine.
Answer this →Broker · Europe
Of the live mandates on your desk at EXPO REAL (5 to 7 Oct), roughly what share have moved from an indicative guide price to a signed bid rather than staying a conversation? Ranges are fine.
Answer this →Debt fund manager · Europe
What is the longest loan duration your vehicle is writing this year, one to three years, three to five, or longer, and is that capped by your own fund's termination date rather than the borrower's ask?
Answer this →Fund manager · Europe
For a stabilised office or logistics asset in a city you are active in, what entry-yield range would you bid this week, and how has that range moved since EXPO REAL 2025? Ranges are fine.
Answer this →Fund manager · DACH
Which German city's investment and vacancy numbers are you underwriting against this quarter, not the national average, and by how many percentage points do they diverge from the Big 7 figures?
Answer this →Fund manager · Romania
What yield gap over Warsaw, in basis points, would you need before underwriting a Bucharest asset this quarter, and has that required gap widened or narrowed since the ECB's 10 Sep rate decision?
Answer this →Senior lender · Europe
On a €50m, five-year senior loan against a stabilised, EPC-A Munich office, what LTV and margin would you quote this week, and what changes at EPC-D with no capex plan? Ranges are fine.
Answer this →Senior lender · Europe
On a €50m stabilised logistics asset refinancing this quarter, what margin over the ECB's main refinancing rate would you quote, and what changes if the asset misses a sustainability screen? Ranges are fine.
Answer this →Senior lender · Frankfurt & DACH
On a Frankfurt office refinancing this quarter, what margin would you quote in basis points, and how does it compare with the same asset type in Hamburg or Munich? Ranges are fine.
Answer this →Senior lender · Slovakia
On a Bratislava office loan this quarter, what loan-to-value would you write compared with an equivalent Prague asset, and is that priced independently of Czech risk?
Answer this →Valuer · Europe
For a Grade A office asset you are currently valuing, what is the live gap between your bid-side and ask-side, in basis points or as a percentage, and has it narrowed since the ECB's 10 Sep rate decision? Ranges are fine.
Answer this →Broker · Europe
Of the live mandates on your desk at EXPO REAL (5 to 7 Oct), roughly what share have moved from an indicative guide price to a signed bid rather than staying a conversation? Ranges are fine.
Answer this →Broker · Czechia
Of this year's Prague office deals you have closed, roughly what share had a buyer from outside CEE, and is that share rising or falling versus last year?
Answer this →Broker · Romania
On the last Romanian investment sale you closed, how many bidders participated, and roughly what share came from outside the region?
Answer this →Debt fund manager · Europe
What is the longest loan duration your vehicle is writing this year, one to three years, three to five, or longer, and is that capped by your own fund's termination date rather than the borrower's ask?
Answer this →Developer · Europe, data centres
For your most advanced data-centre site, what is the confirmed energisation date and current grid-queue position, and who carries the risk in your contracts if that date slips?
Answer this →Developer · Poland
Of the equity behind your last three deals, roughly what share came from outside Central and Eastern Europe, and has that share risen or fallen over the past year?
Answer this →Operator · Europe, data centres
For your next greenfield data-centre project, is the power supply contracted, in queue, or still unaddressed, and how many kilometres from the nearest established hub does the site sit?
Answer this →City & public sector · DACH
Which conversation from EXPO REAL 2025 became a project on the ground in your city, and how long did it take?
Answer this →City & public sector · Poland
Which one site is your city bringing to Munich, and what should an investor know about it in two sentences?
Answer this →Investor · Poland
Across the Polish city stands you have visited this week, which one gave you the most specific, site-level pitch, and what made it more concrete than the others, in two sentences?
Answer this →PRE-EXPO NEWS
A new stand, a deal, a fund, a hire, a report or a session worth flagging before Munich opens: tell the desk before the halls do.
The desk checks every submission before anything is published, and nothing goes live without the sender's OK.
We use what you send only to report on EXPO REAL 2026. Ask us to withdraw it at any time.
Morning brief at 07:15 CEST from Mon 5 Oct. Ask the desk to add you: Dominica@RealTimes.co
