Has Dubai's office market peaked? The evidence points to a pause, not a top

In one agency's reading Dubai's average office rent did not grow in Q2 2026, the first such quarter since H1 2021, and another counts office sales almost 36% below Q1. That is the case for a peak, and this piece tests it. Rent growth has paused in two agency series, and sales have cooled. But JLL's vacancy is lower than a year ago, and larger occupiers deferred decisions during the conflict rather than cancelling them. If a top exists, the indirect evidence points to off-plan office sales paper rather than leased stock.

What is the case that Dubai offices have peaked?

It is a fair case, with three parts.

• Savills reports an average of AED 238 per sq ft with no rental growth in Q2 2026, and notes that this has not happened since H1 2021.
• Cushman & Wakefield reports AED 205 per sq ft, down 2% on the quarter. It describes the fall as a decline of a kind not seen in nearly five years.
• Cavendish Maxwell recorded office sales transactions almost 36% below Q1, with a slight moderation in prices and rents.

Together these read like a market catching its breath. A peak call is a reasonable thing to ask about.

There is also a mix effect to watch. If many new leases are small units, the count can rise while the rent per sq ft stays flat, because small units do not set the price for whole floors. A flat average can hide two different stories: smaller tenants paying more and larger ones waiting.

What does the leasing data say instead?

It says demand is still there.

• JLL puts citywide vacancy at 6.1%, down from 7.7% a year earlier.
• In the Dubai Land Department count, new leases rose 16% on the quarter to 27,121, while renewals fell 16% to 10,961.
• Deals below 500 sq ft were 66% of leasing activity, so small units carried the quarter. That count covers only leases registered with the Dubai Land Department.
• The Dubai PMI rose to 54.5 in September, with the strongest growth in new business from abroad in two years.

JLL adds that rental contract registrations rose 24.6% year on year and 15.1% on the quarter. Registrations count contracts, not rent, so they sit apart from the rent debate.

None of that looks like a top in demand. It looks like a market where small deals carry the numbers while large decisions wait.

Why might demand be deferred, not cancelled?

Savills says the moderation in transaction volumes largely reflects deferred rather than cancelled occupier requirements. It expects those requirements to return progressively and to support stronger activity in H2 2026.

Cushman & Wakefield adds that there has been no meaningful downsizing by global occupiers, with the majority retaining their existing footprints.

Both are agency opinions, and agencies have a stake in the market. The test is the data. If the pause reading is right, new-lease registrations in Q3 and Q4 should climb back above the Q2 base of 27,121.

The renewal figure deserves a second look. Renewals fell 16% on the quarter. That could mean tenants were choosing to move, or that they were waiting before committing. The DLD data does not say which. We do not read it as a sign of weakness without more evidence.

Where is the real exposure?

The exposure appears to sit in off-plan paper, not in leased space. The evidence is indirect.

• Off-plan sales carried the office boom. Cavendish Maxwell found that 65% of H1 deals were off-plan, and 95% of purchases above AED 20m.
• The National reports Dubai off-plan transaction values down more than 50% in June compared with February. The report cites Dubai Land Department data and covers off-plan property in general, not offices alone.
• Costs are up. Developers report imported materials costing up to 25% more than before the conflict, which squeezes delivery.

Leased space has tenants and cash flow. Off-plan paper has a buyer who plans to resell, a developer who must deliver, and often a lender. If a top forms, this is the part we would expect to show strain early. Our piece on banks and office lending looks at the lender side.

Why does the split matter? A leased office produces rent whatever the sales market does. An off-plan unit produces a return only if the building is delivered and someone buys or rents it. Cavendish Maxwell's finding that 95% of purchases above AED 20m were off-plan shows how much of the large-ticket market rests on plan-stage promises.

What would settle it?

Three readings would help.

• New-lease registrations in H2 2026 against the Q2 base.
• Resale prices and discounts on off-plan office units.
• Bank appetite for office borrowers, especially against strata floors.

The regional picture adds risk. The National reports that US-Iran communication channels remain open, while a source close to Iranian negotiators says the exchange does not look likely to produce meaningful results. We do not forecast on this. We note that deferred demand returns when confidence does.

Where could we be wrong?

In four places.

• Leasing may soften later than sales. Registrations lag decisions, so a weak H2 could be hidden in Q2 data.
• Two agencies show rents flat or down. If a third and fourth follow, the pause reading weakens.
• Cavendish Maxwell says the Q2 sales slowdown primarily affected the ready segment, not off-plan. If that holds, the strain we expect in off-plan paper has not shown yet.
• We compare readings from different houses, and their bases differ. We have not built a combined figure for that reason.

We make no price call. The article separates two cycles and says where to look.

The summary is that the evidence points two ways, and the two ways do not conflict once you separate leasing from sales. Rent growth has paused in two series. JLL's vacancy is lower than a year ago, and Cushman & Wakefield sees occupancy easing marginally. Sales have cooled from a level far above a year earlier. The part of the market that depends on future delivery and future resale is where a turn would show early, and it is the part where the public data is weakest.

What to watch

• Q3 and Q4 new-lease counts against 27,121.
• Whether Savills and Cushman & Wakefield show rent growth or decline in their next readings.
• Resale discounts on off-plan office units.
• Lender terms for strata office borrowers.

Join the discussion at “Dubai Office Summit”.

Sources

• Savills: AED 238, no growth in Q2 2026, none since H1 2021
• Savills: New leases 27,121 (+16% q-o-q), renewals 10,961 (-16%)
• Cushman & Wakefield
• Property Time: Office transactions almost 36% below Q1 (Cavendish Maxwell)
• Zawya: Citywide vacancy 6.1% from 7.7%
• The National
• Zawya: Off-plan 65% of H1 deals
• The National: Off-plan transaction values down more than 50% June vs February
• The National: US-Iran channels open