TL;DR
- Poland's national warehouse vacancy fell to 5.7% at the end of September, from 6.6% three months earlier and 8.2% a year before, according to PINK data reported by Property Forum and EurobuildCEE.
- Prologis had let a newly finished two-hall park in Herne, Germany, to a single tenant, VerkehrsRundschau reported on 9 November; Konii ran the news the same day.
- VGP says its portfolio was 98% occupied on 31 October, according to the company's own trading update, as also reported by Idéal Investisseur.
How tight is the Polish market now?
Tighter than a year ago, and noticeably tighter than in June. The Polish Chamber of Commercial Real Estate (PINK) put national vacancy at 5.7% at the end of the third quarter, according to Property Forum and EurobuildCEE. The same figures show gross take-up of 1.79 million sqm in the quarter, against 1.59 million sqm a year earlier.
Cushman & Wakefield reports the same 5.7% and the same take-up, according to EurobuildCEE. Those two sets of numbers are not independent confirmation of each other. PINK compiles data from nine advisers, Cushman & Wakefield among them, as EurobuildCEE notes. We could not open PINK's own release, so we attribute its figures to the outlets that reported them.
One caution on the demand side. Gross take-up includes renewals, which made up 29% of the total, according to EurobuildCEE and Property Forum. In our reading, that means it is not the same as net new space absorbed.
Are developers responding?
They are. Developers delivered 383,500 sqm in the quarter, but space under construction rose to 1.67 million sqm from 1.3 million sqm at the end of June, according to Property Forum and EurobuildCEE. Cushman & Wakefield says construction starts reached about 738,000 sqm in the quarter, up 54% on a year earlier, according to EurobuildCEE.
What do Herne and VGP add?
Less than the Polish data, and we say so plainly. They are individual company statements, not market statistics.
In Herne, in the Ruhr area, Prologis let both halls of a recently finished park, 20,445 sqm in total, to logistics provider JF Global Supply Chain. Konii also reported the letting of both halls. According to VerkehrsRundschau, Prologis' leasing head for Germany said the tenant signed directly at completion and called it a strong signal for the location. That is the developer's reading of one deal, and the report gives no lease terms.
VGP, which operates in 18 European countries, says its property portfolio was virtually fully let, with occupancy at 98% on 31 October (unchanged from 30 June, as Idéal Investisseur also reports), and that its pre-let pipeline stood at 74%, according to its trading update. We read the text through a reprint of the release, so these remain the company's own figures.
We found no German vacancy figure, and no pan-European vacancy or take-up figure, first published between 4 and 10 November. For that reason we do not draw a Europe-wide conclusion.
Why it matters
Our view: the Polish numbers show a market where vacant space is shrinking, with vacancy at 5.7% against 8.2% a year earlier, according to Property Forum and EurobuildCEE. Developers have noticed, and the 1.67 million sqm now under construction is the response.
Two scenarios, neither a forecast. If most of that pipeline arrives while take-up stays near 1.8 million sqm a quarter, then vacancy could stop falling as new supply catches up. If take-up slips below this quarter's 1.79 million sqm, then new buildings would reach a market with less demand behind them, and vacancy could rise from 5.7%.
Are you planning your next warehouse move for 2027, and has the shrinking choice of ready space already changed your timetable?
