TL;DR
- Fitch-rated sukuk averaged a liquidity score of 62 on 2 November, unchanged since 1 October and below 68 in January. UAE developers' sukuk scored lowest (Fitch Ratings).
- Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund is exploring securitisations and stake sales, Reuters reported, as lending at Saudi banks outpaces deposits (Enterprise AM).
- First Abu Dhabi Bank's board approved a proposed rights issue of up to AED 15bn at a 30% discount (FAB).
The Islamic bond market has stopped healing, and the paper that Gulf property developers sell is the hardest to trade. On Tuesday 10 November Fitch Ratings said the average liquidity score of the sukuk it rates was broadly stable at 62 in early November.
That is the same as on 1 October, against 64 in August and 68 in January, before the Iran conflict, according to Fitch Ratings. Sukuk issued by UAE property developers had the lowest liquidity scores in Fitch's coverage, according to Fitch Ratings and Zawya.
In the same week Saudi Arabia's sovereign wealth fund was reported to be weighing new ways to raise money, and First Abu Dhabi Bank's board approved a proposed rights issue of up to AED 15bn, pending a shareholder vote on 7 December (FAB).
For real estate the question is plain: who funds the next phase of Gulf building when the bond market, the wealth fund and the banks all want more cash?
How hard is it to sell developer sukuk?
Fitch uses Bloomberg's Liquidity Assessment scores, from 1 to 100, which estimate the cost of selling a security. A higher score means a cheaper sale (Fitch Ratings). On 2 November 69% of Fitch-rated sukuk scored above 50, against 81% in January (Fitch Ratings).
Credit quality draws the line. Investment-grade sukuk averaged 67 in early November against 72 in January. Speculative-grade paper averaged 35, against 48 (Fitch Ratings). Within the Gulf, sukuk from Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Kuwait led with an average of about 57, after a brief dip during Houthi attacks in late October (Fitch Ratings).
For a developer, a low score means investors who hold its paper can sell only at a higher cost. In our view, new paper has to pay for that.
Sukuk liquidity has been broadly stable since August, still below its pre-war level (average Bloomberg liquidity score of Fitch-rated sukuk, 1 to 100)
Why is Saudi Arabia's wealth fund looking for cash?
PIF, with over $900bn in assets under management, is exploring securitising cash streams from some portfolio companies, people with knowledge of the matter told Reuters. It will also look at selling stakes in mature assets and raising funds for younger companies, one source said. The aim is to grow investments without injecting more of its own capital. A liquidity crunch across Saudi lenders and a lull in stock market listings could encourage that wider strategy, the source added.
Fitch's reading of the banks is milder but points the same way. It sees no liquidity crunch, but bank credit grew 7% in the year to September while deposits grew about 5% (Enterprise AM). That lifted the sector's non-regulatory loan-to-deposit ratio to around 114% from 111%, Enterprise AM reported. A weak Gulf IPO market in 2026 has limited another route, Reuters added.
What does it mean for Saudi property projects?
Real estate is already in the frame. Some key real estate projects were omitted or largely scaled back under PIF's 2026 to 2030 strategy, released in April, Reuters reported. Valuation gaps in early talks and disagreements over control of assets have emerged as obstacles to stake sales, sources said. ROSHN, the PIF-owned developer, is already testing the route. In July Reuters reported that it was seeking investors for Aramco Stadium, a 2034 World Cup venue, through a lease and leaseback structure, to free up capital (Reuters via Zawya).
In our view, that is outside capital's opening: a seller that wants cash but keeps control will offer minority stakes, priced accordingly.
Why does the UAE's largest bank plan to raise up to AED 15bn?
FAB's board approved a proposal to raise up to AED 15bn in gross proceeds by issuing 1,109,467,456 new shares at AED 13.52 each, the release shows. The price is a 30% discount to the bank's closing price on the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange on 10 November (FAB). Reuters, which put the deal at up to $4.08bn, called it one of the largest rights issues in the Gulf in recent years (Reuters via Yahoo Finance).
Mubadala, the largest shareholder with 37.9%, intends to subscribe for its full entitlement (FAB). FAB calls it growth capital: for 2026 to 2031 it targets loan growth of 10% to 15% a year (Gulf News). Shareholders vote on 7 December, and completion is expected in the first quarter of 2027 (Gulf News).
The release names critical infrastructure, AI and digital capacity among its financing opportunities (FAB), and FAB also pointed to trade, infrastructure investment and cross-border capital flows (Gulf News); neither singles out real estate.
In our view, more equity at the UAE's largest lender means more room to lend, and developers that cannot sell sukuk cheaply will look to that room first.
Three signals in one week, and the dates that follow
Tap a date to read more.
10 November 2026Fitch: sukuk liquidity stalls
The average liquidity score of Fitch-rated sukuk was 62 on 2 November, unchanged since 1 October, against 68 in January. Sukuk from UAE property developers scored lowest.
10 November 2026Reuters: PIF weighs new fundraising
PIF, with over $900bn of assets, explores securitising cash streams from portfolio companies and selling stakes in mature assets.
11 November 2026FAB board approves a proposed rights issue
Up to AED 15bn at AED 13.52 a share, a 30% discount to the 10 November close. Mubadala intends to take up its 37.9% entitlement.
7 December 2026FAB shareholder vote
The General Assembly votes on the rights issue, subject to regulatory approvals.
First quarter 2027Expected completion
FAB expects the rights issue to be completed.
Why it matters
Our view: in the Gulf this autumn, cash sets the terms. If sukuk from UAE developers stay at the bottom of Fitch's ranking while the average holds at 62 against 68 in January, then developers refinancing in 2027 pay more to issue, or turn to banks and private lenders. If shareholders approve FAB's rights issue of up to AED 15bn on 7 December and the bank pursues 10% to 15% annual loan growth, then bank credit becomes the easier route for UAE projects with strong sponsors.
In Saudi Arabia, if PIF goes ahead with the stake sales Reuters describes and ROSHN brings in investors for Aramco Stadium, then outside investors get minority entry into Saudi projects from a seller that wants cash. If valuation gaps and control disputes persist, then projects wait and the scaled-back real estate pipeline of the 2026 to 2030 strategy stays the plan.
FAQ
Did sukuk liquidity fall this month?
No. The average score of Fitch-rated sukuk was 62 on 2 November, unchanged since 1 October, but still below 68 in January, before the Iran conflict (Fitch Ratings).
What is PIF considering?
It is exploring securitising cash streams from some portfolio companies and selling stakes in mature assets, according to Reuters. PIF declined to comment on those plans.
When will FAB's rights issue happen?
Shareholders vote at a General Assembly on 7 December 2026, subject to regulatory approvals. FAB expects completion in the first quarter of 2027 (FAB, Gulf News).
Sources (8)
- Fitch Ratings, Sukuk Liquidity Stabilising Below Pre-Conflict Levels, 10 November 2026
- Zawya, Sukuk from Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Kuwait 'most liquid' among GCC countries: Fitch, 11 November 2026
- Reuters via ARY News, Saudi Arabia weighs fresh fundraising options to generate cash from companies, 10 November 2026
- First Abu Dhabi Bank, FAB Board of Directors approves proposed AED 15bln rights issue (press release via Zawya), 11 November 2026
- Reuters via Yahoo Finance, UAE's FAB plans to raise up to $4.08 billion in one of largest Gulf rights issues in recent years, 11 November 2026
- Gulf News, FAB plans Dh15 billion rights issue at 30% discount to fund growth, 11 November 2026
- Enterprise AM, Saudi banks face years of pricier funding as lending outpaces deposits, Fitch warns, 9 November 2026
- Reuters via Zawya, Saudi Arabia-backed developer seeks World Cup stadium investors, sources say, 17 July 2026
