TL;DR
- On 10 November Dubai's Executive Council approved the findings of a Dubai Land Department study that puts occupancy at 97% for homes, 98% for retail and 94% for offices. It projects 365,000 new residential units and about 1.1 million square metres of office and retail space by 2030 (Sharjah24, WAM).
- The same meeting approved a Dh2bn Metro extension of 3 km, with two stations, to the West Terminal of Al Maktoum International Airport, due to open in 2031 (The National).
- Developers moved the same week: Nakheel unveiled Palm Springs for about 50,000 residents (The National), and Cheval Collection launched 193 units in Dubai South (The National).
Dubai's homes are 97% occupied, and the emirate expects to add 365,000 more by 2030. Both figures come from a Dubai Land Department study whose findings the Executive Council approved on Tuesday 10 November, according to WAM, as published by Sharjah24.
At the same meeting the council approved a Metro extension to Al Maktoum International Airport, the hub Dubai is building in the south of the city. For owners and lenders, the question is how fast the new supply meets demand, and where.
What did the Dubai Land Department study find?
The study puts residential occupancy at 97%, retail at 98% and offices at 94%, Gulf News reports. It projects 365,000 new residential units and approximately 1.1 million square metres of office and retail space by 2030. The government release does not publish the study's method, a year-by-year delivery schedule or a split between offices and retail.
The study supports the Dubai Real Estate Sector Strategy 2033. That strategy aims to double the sector's contribution to Dubai's GDP to Dh73bn and to bring the market's total value to Dh1 trillion (Gulf News). Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammed, Crown Prince of Dubai, said the study would guide policy and development decisions (The National).
The official figure sits above the count of homes already being built. Research firm ValuStrat puts completions scheduled by the end of the decade, from projects under active construction, at about 322,000 units. It estimates Dubai's housing stock at just under 900,000 homes (Khaleej Times). On those numbers, 365,000 new units would add about two-fifths to the stock.
Three counts of Dubai's housing: the official projection runs ahead of what is under construction
| Measure | Units | Source |
|---|---|---|
| New residential units projected by 2030, Dubai Land Department study | 365,000 | Sharjah24, WAM |
| Completions scheduled by the end of the decade from projects under active construction, ValuStrat | about 322,000 | Khaleej Times |
| Existing housing stock, ValuStrat estimate | just under 900,000 | Khaleej Times |
Source: Sharjah24, WAM, 10 November 2026; Khaleej Times, 15 August 2026. The two projections use different methods and are not additive.
Why does a 3 km Metro line matter to the supply story?
The Dh2bn extension adds 3 km and two stations to Route 2020, linking it to the West Terminal of Al Maktoum International Airport, with services due to begin in 2031 (The National). Together with a Dh9.59bn plan for community services to 2040, the package is worth more than Dh11bn (Sharjah24, WAM).
Dubai plans to move all commercial operations from Dubai International to Al Maktoum International between 2032 and 2035 (The National). In June the government said the project remained on course to start operations in 2032. Contracts worth Dh13bn were under execution, and the airport is planned for more than 260 million passengers a year at completion (Dubai Media Office).
On 27 October the Executive Council approved an urban centres plan that aims to raise the share of residents living around Metro stations from 52% to 74% (Dubai Media Office). The 10 November announcement does not identify the two new stations or give journey times (Gulf News).
Who is already building in southern Dubai?
Buyers arrived before the Metro decision. A July report by W Capital Real Estate Brokerage recorded 2,869 transactions worth Dh3.3bn in Dubai South in June, much of it off-plan, according to the brokerage. It also counted 653 new companies in the district over the preceding year, taking the total to more than 4,200 (Gulf News).
On 10 November Nakheel, part of Dubai Holding Real Estate, unveiled Palm Springs next to Palm Jebel Ali. It is a 3.8 million sq m masterplan of 15 neighbourhoods for about 50,000 residents; Nakheel did not reveal its total value or time frame (The National).
A day later, UK operator Cheval Collection launched Cheval South Bay in Dubai South. It has 98 serviced hotel apartments and 95 branded residences, is due to open in 2030; sales are expected to start next year, and prices have not been disclosed (The National).
From approval to airport: the dates that set the southern corridor's pace
Tap a date to read more.
27 October 2026Urban centres plan approved
The Executive Council approves a plan to raise the share of residents living around Metro stations from 52% to 74%.
10 November 2026Study, Metro and Palm Springs
The council approves the Dubai Land Department study's findings and a Dh2bn Metro extension to Al Maktoum International Airport. Nakheel unveils Palm Springs for about 50,000 residents.
11 November 2026Cheval South Bay
Cheval Collection launches 98 serviced hotel apartments and 95 branded residences in Dubai South, due to open in 2030.
2030The study's horizon
The study projects 365,000 new residential units and about 1.1 million square metres of office and retail space by this year.
2031Metro services begin
The 3 km extension with two stations to the airport's West Terminal is due to open.
2032Airport operations
The first phase of the Al Maktoum International Airport development project is on course to start operations, according to the June project update.
2032 to 2035The move from Dubai International
All commercial operations move from Dubai International to Al Maktoum International.
What does 1.1 million square metres mean for office and retail landlords?
The study gives one combined figure, about 1.1 million square metres of office and retail space by 2030, against occupancy of 94% for offices and 98% for retail (Gulf News). If that space arrives while occupancy holds at those levels, then the new floor area will have been absorbed without raising vacancy; the release does not say how it splits between offices and retail.
The study puts residential occupancy across Dubai at 97%, without a separate figure for Dubai South (Gulf News).
Why it matters
Our view: the study gives lenders a yardstick. If the 365,000 new homes arrive by 2030 while residential occupancy holds near 97%, then Dubai will have added about two-fifths to its stock of just under 900,000 homes with no rise in empty homes. The study's number would then become the benchmark for absorption. If completions stop nearer the 322,000 units under active construction, then the official figure is partly a target, and schemes not yet launched carry the timing risk.
In the south, the Metro is due in 2031 and the airport in 2032. If both keep to that timetable, then Cheval South Bay, due in 2030, opens a year before the line and two before the airport. Its first years of leasing would rest on the road network. If the move of commercial operations runs to the end of the 2032 to 2035 window, then southern schemes will lease up on the promise of the airport rather than its traffic.
FAQ
What is the Dubai Real Estate Sector Strategy 2033?
It is the government strategy the Dubai Land Department study supports. It aims to double the property sector's contribution to Dubai's GDP to Dh73bn, raise the volume of transactions by 70% and bring the market's total value to Dh1 trillion (Gulf News).
Where is Al Maktoum International Airport?
Also known as Dubai World Central (DWC), it sits within the airport city development in Dubai South. It is separate from Dubai International (DXB), and Dubai Airports operates both (Gulf News).
When will the Metro reach the airport?
Services on the 3 km extension, with two stations to the West Terminal, are due to begin in 2031 (The National). The station sites and journey times have not been announced (Gulf News).
Sources (9)
- Sharjah24 (WAM), Hamdan bin Mohammed approves AED11bn Dubai projects, 10 November 2026
- The National, Dubai to launch Metro line to Al Maktoum Airport to boost connectivity, 10 November 2026
- Gulf News, Sheikh Hamdan unveils Dh11 billion plan to shape Dubai's future, 10 November 2026
- Gulf News, Dubai South homes: DWC Metro link adds a new edge for buyers and tenants, 11 November 2026
- The National, Nakheel unveils mega development for 50,000 residents in Dubai, 10 November 2026
- The National, UK's Cheval Collection launches new Dubai project in expansion push, 11 November 2026
- Dubai Media Office, Al Maktoum International Airport development project achieves significant milestones, 15 June 2026
- Dubai Media Office, Hamdan bin Mohammed chairs a meeting of The Executive Council of Dubai, 27 October 2026
- Khaleej Times, Dubai housing pipeline stays strong through 2030 despite headwinds, 15 August 2026
